11/30/2012 Update:

Thursdays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 88.69

Low: 87.62

Settle: 88.04

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

We saw crude trade within a 1.07 range yesterday settling at 88.04 failing to hold above its 50 day moving average at about the 88.60 level.   We need to watch this resistance level today as a level that crude oil traders may look to sell.  We will also keep a close eye on how oil volatility and refined products are reacting to end of the month balancing.  As well as, Geopolitical news out of Washington regarding the fiscal cliff and Middle East tensions that can impact crude oil prices.

Tune in this morning to hear a full analysis and pit commentary.  

www.crudesquawk.com

Levels:  

Support: 88.12, 88.00, 87.62, 87.54, 87.05, 86.66, 85.98

Resistance: 88.61, 89.00, 89.19, 89.80, 90.25, 91.00, 91.75

Thursdays Natural Gas Pit Session: 

High: 3.759

Low: 3.637

Close / Settle: 3.650

Looking ahead to today’s Natural Gas pit session:

We watched natural gas trade lower as the EIA inventory numbers came in at a 4 BCF build much higher than the forecasted -5 BCF draw.  We need to keep an eye on the 3.600 support level as a break below this number could push us down to the low end of our range at the 3.350-3.200 levels

Tune in this morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.

www.crudesquawk.com

Levels: 

Support: 3.620, 3.600, 3.586, 3,523, 3.345

Resistance: 3.637, 3.701, 3.764, 3.791, 3.879, 4.057

11/29/2012 Update:

Wednesdays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 86.54

Low: 85.36

Close: 86.46

Settle: 86.49

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Yesterday we had our DOE/ EIA inventory data come with a draw in inventories, resulting in crude prices to go higher after the data was release. As we look ahead to today’s pit session we see crude catching a bid in the overnight session. Today we have to keep a close eye on the 88 level, and any news about the fiscal cliff.  One other thing we must watch is how crude oil volatility and the refined products react to end of the month balancing.

Tune in this morning to hear a full analysis and pit commentary.  

www.crudesquawk.com

Levels:  

Support: 86.82, 86.12, 85.36, 85.00 

Resistance: 88.00, 88.26, 88.50, 88.80 

Wednesdays Natural Gas Pit Session: 

High: 3.826

Low: 3.737

Close / Settle: 3.802

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Yesterday we had expiration in the Dec Natural Gas contract at close of pit trading. Looking ahead at today’s pit session we will still see money moving into the Jan contract as today is first notice day for Jan. Also today we have Natural Gas EIA inventory numbers coming out at 1030est; analysts are forecasting a draw of 5 BCF. Earlier this week we had a report stating there was going to be colder than expected weather throughout the United States resulting in Natural Gas prices going lower off the 4.060 level.  So today we really have to watch the inventory data to get a better indication on where prices will be going.

Tune in this morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.

www.crudesquawk.com

Levels: 

Support: 3.737, 3.700, 3.660, 3.597

Resistance: 3.814, 3.891, 3.900  

11/28/2012 Update:

Tuesdays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 88.01

Low: 86.83

Settlement: 87.19

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Last night’s API inventory report shows U.S. crude oil inventories increased 1.96 million barrels last week and are hovering above two to three year averages.  Using this report as a leading indicator, we can also expect to see a build in today’s 1030am DOE inventory report above the 500,000m forecast.  That said, if the DOE number does come in higher we can expect to see crude oil traders push prices lower.  Geopolitical fears that the US is not making enough progress in resolving the looming fiscal cliff may also fuel pressure to the down side.   

The cease fire in the Middle East still appears to be holding.  If the cease fire fails apart, then we can see crude easily push up to the 90-94 handle.  However, all the technicals are pointing to the down towards major support at the 84.50 level

Check out www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to all of today’s action broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pits as it unfolds!

Resistance: 86.50, 86.83, 87.00, 87.30, 87.50, 87.87, 88.00, 88.50, 90.00

Support:   86.17, 86.00, 85.50, 84.98, 85.50, 85.00, 84.50

11/27/2012 Update:

Mondays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 88.00

Low: 87.27

Settlement: 87.72

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Monday was a slow choppy range bound trading day with crude prices unable to break above 88.00 or below Fridays pit session lows of 87.27. As a new debt deal agreement with Greece may be reached, we need to keep a close eye on tonight’s API inventory numbers for market direction.  Many floor traders are still looking at the 90 level as a major level of resistance.    The cease fire in the Middle East appears to be holding.  If it continues then we are anticipating prices to bounce off the 90.00 area.  If the cease fire falls apart, then we can see crude easily push up to the 92-94 handle. 

If we see the 90 level resistance hold and crude oil prices fall, energy traders are looking at the 84.50 level as major support. 

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen all of today’s action broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 88.00, 88.50, 88.77, 89.00, 89.30, 90.00 92.00, 94.00

Support:   87.50, 87.50, 87.00, 86.90, 86.76, 86.50, 86.00, 85.50, 85.00

11/26/2012 Update:

Fridays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 88.53

Low: 87.27

Settlement: 86.26

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Crude oil prices have pulled back off Fridays pit session highs of 88.53 as the cease fire in Israel seems to be holding.   However, geopolitical fears have been and will continue to be the catalyst behind this market.   Many floor traders are looking at the 90 level as a major level of resistance if the cease fire continues to hold.  If the cease fire falls apart then we can see crude easily push up to the 92-94 handle. 

If we see the 90 level resistance hold and crude oil prices fall, energy traders are looking at the 84.50 level as major support. 

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to our crude pit audio broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 88.00, 88.50, 88.77, 89.00, 89.30, 90.00 92.00, 94.00

Support:  87.50, 87.50, 87.00, 86.90, 86.76, 86.50, 86.00, 85.50, 85.00

11/23/2012 Update:

Wednesdays  Crude Pit Session: 

High: 87.89

Low: 86.37

Settlement: 87.39

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Today will be a half day in the Energy pits in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday.  That said, we do not expect to see much trading volume coming from the pits.   We have watched crude drop in the overnight electronic trading session as the cease fire in Israel holds for a second day.   Unless we see a major change in the Middle East we are expecting to see Crude Oil close lower today.   Due to the shortened trading day and low pit population we will not be broadcasting live from the NYMEX.  It’s a good day to kick back and relax!  Our broadcast will resume Monday November 26 at 850am.   Please join us for our Sunday members only prep call where we will be interviewing the Goldman Sachs floor broker and discussing the upcoming weeks trading action with our experts.  

We do have a limited number of non member seats available to participate on this call, If you are interested in listening to this exciting interview, please email admin@crudesquawk.com  to reserve your spot.

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to our crude pit audio broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds! 

11/21/2012 Update:

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 88.79

Low: 86.17

Settlement: 86.76

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

We watched crude oil prices fall yesterday to 86.17 as rumors of a cease-fire in Israel circulated throughout the news wires.  We then witnessed crude oil traders push the price back up into the 87 handle overnight as it became apparent that the cease-fire failed to come together.   Putting additional pressure to the upside, The American Petroleum Institute report said that oil inventories have fallen for a second week in a row.   Department of Energy inventories are scheduled to be released today at 1030am.  They are currently forecasting a 800,000 barrel build, an actual build below this number will continue to drive price for crude oil to the upside.  As the cease fire failed to materialize we also watched the January PUT to CALL open interest increase to the CALL side.   

Outside a dramatic build in DOE inventories today,   we are anticipating crude oil traders will stay on the long side of the market until some type of peace agreement is reached in the Middle East possibly pushing prices into the 90-92 handle. 

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen crude pit audio broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 88.31, 88.50, 89.10, 89.86, 90.00, 90.50 92.48

Support:  87.24, 87.00, 86.50, 86.17, 85.69, 85.00, 84.62, 82.00

11/20/2012 Update:

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 89.80

Low: 88.40

Settlement: 89.35

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Crude oil prices hit 89.80; the highest level in over a month during yesterday’s trading pit session.   This drive up is being fueled by geopolitical fears over tensions in the Middle East as the risk of a possible Israeli ground assault on Gaza still looms.   An open above our 89.35 settlement may continue to fuel this geopolitical price rally and possibly push us up into the 90-92 handle.  However,  long term crude oil fundamentals  do not support this rise in prices as we continue to see increased inventory levels and PUT side open interest continuing to increase as the option traders seem to be positioning themselves for prices to fall back down to or below the 85 handle 

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to this action packed day broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 89.18, 89.50, 89.80, 89.97, 90.58, 91.00, 91.50, 92.58

Support:  88.57, 88.00, 87.78, 87.52, 87.00, 86.35, 86.00, 85.50, 85.00  

11/19/2012 Update

Fridays Crude Pit Session: 

High: 87.39

Low: 86.24

Settlement: 86.96

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

We are looking for an open and settlement above 87.56 to be a bullish sign that crude oil prices will continue to rise amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East will impact supply and the US will agree to defer automatic spending cuts and tax increases that could throw the country into a recession.  An open or close below this key level may be an indication that prices could retreat back down to the 85 handle or lower.  As we saw option traders (despite geopolitical fears) reduce their bullish bets last week by almost 18% as December crude oil options expired and moved to the January front month .  These factors combined with a shortened Holiday trading week could bring us some volatile price action this week.

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to this action packed day broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 88.00, 88.50, 89.00, 89.15, 89.50, 90.00, 90.50

Support: 87.50, 87.39, 87.00, 86.86, 86.34, 86.00, 85.71, 84.50  

11/16/2012 Update

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session:  (Jan Contract)

High: 87.25

Low: 85.10

Settlement: 85.88

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

Yesterday we saw crude trade in within a $2.15 relatively bearish range after what should have been a bullish DOE inventory report coming in lower than the forecasted 2.5M build at 1.1M.   I order for the bulls to take charge they will still need to break above the 87.00 level.  Conversely, a break below the 84.00 will confirm this bearish trend may continue.   If we do not break these levels we are expecting prices to chop around this 85.00 trading range.  We are also keeping a very close eye on geopolitical news in the as any major escalation of war in the Middle East could dramatically force prices to rise.   

Sign up today at www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to this action packed day broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 87.08, 86.75,87.00,  87.50, 88.00, 88.25 88.50, 89.00, 89.75, 90.38

Support:  85.50, 85.10, 84.90, 84.50, 84.93, 84.50, 84.00, 81.78 

11/15/2012 Update

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session:  (Jan Contract)

High: 87.06

Low: 86.76

Settlement: 85.39

Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:

DOE inventories are scheduled to be released at 11 am est  with a forecasted 2.5M build and we may see some choppy range-bound trading leading up to this release.  Last night, we saw the API inventory data come out with a build of 1.35 million.  So using those numbers as a leading indicator, we will most likely see a positive build today for DOE inventories as well.  Globex volume dictates that we roll over to the JAN 2013 contract.  That said, we need to watch the 87.00 level as an open above this level can take us back up to the 89 handle.   We are also keeping a close eye on the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) as it traded very softly yesterday.

We are also keeping another close eye on Geopolitical news in the Middle East and here in the USA that may impact today’s price action

Sign up today at  www.crudesquawk.com  and listen to this action packed day broadcasted live from the NYMEX Pit as it unfolds!

Resistance: 87.06, 87.24, 87.50, 88.00, 88.50, 89.00 89.75

Support:  86.40, 86.00, 85.75, 85.40, 84.73, 84.50, 84.00, 83.50, 83.00 

11/14/2012 Update

Yesterday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 85.95

Low: 84.57

Settlement: 85.56

We saw Crude rise off yesterdays pit session low of 84.57 and its settlement of 85.56 to 86.00 during the London overnight session.  Due to the Veterans Day holiday Tuesdays API Report was delayed until Wednesday night and DOE inventory reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, November 15, 2012 at 10:30am.  We are expecting to see another build in both of these reports.  However, an open above 85.38 will be considered bullish and an open below will be bearish.  We also are keeping a very close eye on the 84.00 level as a break below will be extremely bearish and could push up down to the 79 handle

Resistance:  85.95, 86.50, 86.68, 87.00, 87.50, 88.06

Support:  85.56, 85.30, 85.00, 84.65, 84.57, 84.00, 82.54

Sign Up today to listen to the action live as it unfolds from the pits!

www.crudesquawk.com

11/13/2012 Update

Monday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 86.54

Low: 85.27

Settlement: 85.56

I observance of the Veterans Day Holiday we saw very light volume traded in the pits.  It seems traders are trying to digest the Presidential election results and re-position themselves.  We saw big news hit the ticker tape from the EIA that they want to make the USA the number one producer of crude oil by 2020-2035.  That said we may see crude rally to the 88 handle with a break above 86.77 and then sell off significantly, possibly back down to the 79 handle.  A break below 84.00 will be an extremely bearish indication that could push us down to the 79 handle. 

Resistance: 85.50, 86.00, 86.50,86.77,87.00,87.50,87.88,88.00

Support: 85.07, 84.96,84.83, 84.70, 84.13, 83.30,83.00,82,50,82.00

Come listen to the action live as it unfolds at www.crudesquawk.com!!

11/12/2012 Update

Fridays Crude Pit Session:

High: 86.77

Low: 84.34

Settlement: 86.09

We watched crude prices continue to rise off it recent lows on Friday making session highs at 86.77.  We are expecting an open above Fridays 86.09 settlement level to be an indication that prices will continue to rise.   A break above 86.50 and 86.77 will further confirm this bullish indication and we could watch prices eventually push up into the 89 handle.  A break below 84.00 will be an extremely bearish indication that could push us down to the 80 handle

Resistance:  86.50, 86.77, 87.00, 87.50, 87.88, 88.00, 88.50, 89.00

Support:  86.00, 85.50, 85.00, 84.50, 84.34, 84.00

Sign up to listen to today's pit action live as it unfolds!  www.crudesquawk.com 

11/09/12 Update:

Yestrdays Crude pit session:

High:  85.70

Low:   84.22

Settlement:  85.09

As we watch crude trade in a downward channel on our daily charts.  We notice that the 84.00 to 84.50 are very important technical and fundamental levels we need to watch.  The short term options show prices going higher to the top of the trading range.   On the other hand we saw about 500 lots of the December 84.50 CALL traded yesterday with a really low Delta of about 25. The OVX was trading lower yesterday as well suggesting lack of follow through.  Something else to take note of in yesterday’s price action is that the December 81.00 to 82.00 CALL spread was traded over 200 times in open interest.

That said, keep a close eye on the 84.50 during today trading session.    An open above can possibly push us up to the highs or our range, in respect to OIL VIX

Tune in to our broadcast live from the NYMEX pit at 8:45am for more insight into today’s trading session and hear the trading action live as it unfolds!!    www.crudesquawk.com

Support:  84.50, 84.22, 84.05, 83.79, 83.63

Resistance: 85.11, 85.50, 85.70, 86.00, 86.50

11/8/2012 Update

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session:

High: 87.54

Low: 84.05

Settlement: 84.5

As DOE inventories levels came out yesterday at the expected 1.8M build we watched yesterdays crude prices fall to the lowest levels we have seen in over 4 months.  Traders appear to now be balancing their positions after the election as we watched crude rise $.95 during the overnight session to 85.39.   We are expecting to see a slow choppy trade up today possibly back into the 86 handle especially if we see an opening print above the 85.50 level.   

Resistance:  85.39, 85.50, 85.94, 86.50, 87.88

Support: 85.00, 84.75, 85.50, 84.05, 83.07

Come listen to our live CrudeSquawk at www.crudesquawk.com!

Have a great trading day! 

11/7/2012 Update

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session:

High: 88.22

Low: 86.08

Settlement: 88.60

Looking back at yesterdays crude pit session we saw crude dip below its 20 minute opening range early in the day finding key support at the 86.00 level.   Then we saw prices rise for the remainder of the day finally settling at 88.60.  After news of Obama’s Presidential win prices fell over 1.00 during the overnight European session.   We are expecting a choppy trading day as the markets digest how a second term will impact them.   Additionally, DOE Crude Inventories are to be released at 1030am.  We are expecting a 1.8m build.  If we see inventory levels above 1.8 it will put further downward pressure on prices, if the number comes in below 1.8, we can expect to see slight upward pressure on prices

Resistance:  89.00, 89.22, 89.85, 91.11,

Support: 87.97, 87.43, 86.71, 86.00, 85.42

Listen to Crudesquawk live from the NYMEX pits at:  www.crudesquawk.com

Yesterdays Crude Pit Session:

High: 85.75

Low: 84.72

Settlement: 85.63

Yesterday was a low volume range bound start in anticipation of Todays Presidential election.  However yesterday’s opening print of 84.96 was an indication that it could in fact be a bullish day and as we broke above the opening range, we did in fact trend higher ultimately closing at 85.63.  We are expecting another choppy range bound day in anticipation of today’s presidential election.  However we are looking for crude to rise to the 87 handle later in the week.

Resistance:  85.73, 85.84, 85.90

Support: 85.56, 84.88, 83.82, 84.72

www.crudesquawk.com 

11/01/12 Crude pit session

High: 87.42

Low: 86.09

Close / Settlement: 87.06

Getting back into the pit after Sandy devastated the greater New York City area. There has been light volume as the NYMEX reopens floor trading. Yesterday we saw DOE/EIA inventories come out with a draw of -1.9 million barrels, causing crude to chop higher and settle the pit session near the highs of the day. We can expect to see a lot of volatility in the market because of non-farm Employment number coming out at 8:30 am EST.  Levels of Support are 86.00, 85.76, and 85.10. Levels of Resistance are 86.90, 87.62, and 88.00.

Natural Gas Pit session

High: 3.719

Low: 3.653

Close settlement:  3.702

For Natural Gas we can expect to trend lower, as long as we stay below 3.600. We also had inventories for NG yesterday and saw a build. So let’s watch for the selling to come in below that 3.600.