3/27/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 96.45

Low: 95.24

Close:  96.20

Looking ahead to today:

We saw yesterday’s crude oil traders push prices to 5 week highs at 96.45 following news late in the session that North Korea saying it has prepared for attacks on US bases in Hawaii, Guam and the mainland, by ordering its artillery rocket units into "combat posture" towards the country.  Prices also benefited from better than expected durable goods orders, improved market sentiment toward Cyprus and as breakdown of the BRENT/WTI Spread.  Last night’s API showed a +3.7M barrel build in Crude inventories, a -2M draw in Gasoline and a -1.9m draw in Distillates.   Using this report as a leading indicator into today’s 10:30DOE inventory report that is forecasting a build of only 1.6M in Crude inventories, We may expect to see a larger draw than expected possibly putting downward pressure on prices as we have already seen in the overnight session. 

Levels:

Support:  95.52, 95.24, 94.79, 94.59, 93.08

Resistance: 95.93, 96.45, 97.03, 97.96, 98.44

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.995

Low: 3.895

Close:  3.989

Looking ahead to today:

We saw May Natural Gas prices push up towards the 4.00 handle yesterday on a late day bid off the 3.900 support level once again.  This bullish trend continued overnight making new highs at 4.030.  Despite this bullish price action and ongoing record open interest in the Natty, we are still continuing to see increased PUT activity come into play in the Options signaling this uptrend may be coming to an end soon.   All eyes will be on Tomorrow’s storage report numbers that is currently forecasting a bullish -85BCF draw in inventories as well as our short and long term weather forecasts for clues as to when this bull run may end.

Levels:

Support:  3.965, 3.901, 3.895, 3.798

Resistance: 4.030, 4.068, 4.132, 4.299

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/26/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 95.69

Low: 94.01

Close: 94.76

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil prices push to their highest level since mid-February to 95.65 off of the bailout deal in Cyprus.   However, we then saw the market sell off as comments out of the EU suggested that the bailout can be a template for all of Euro Zone pushing us all the way down to 94.01 before catching a bid into the close and settling at 94.79.  Looking ahead to today we have seen a bullish overnight Globex session an opening print above yesterday high or settle will be a very bullish indication for upside possibly into the 97-98 handles as options suggest and as the Brent/WTI spread continues to tighten into the 12.00 handle or lower.   We need to pay close attention to today’s API numbers ahead of tomorrow’s DOE report that is predicting a 1.5M build in inventories as a build may put downward pressure on prices.  Additionally, will also need to continue to monitor the Cyprus situation and how it impacts the markets as well as any Geopolitical news out of the Middle East. 

Levels:

Support:  95.08, 94.82, 94.01, 93.18, 91.54

Resistance: 95.69, 96.46, 97.18, 97.78, 98.10

  

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 4.016

Low: 3.885

Close:  3.887

Looking ahead to today:

We saw April Natural Gas prices fail to hold above the 4.000 level on once again in the May contract and we broke and closed below the 3.90 support level.  Yesterdays bearish price action combined with increased PUT activity in the options suggests Natty’s strong uptrend may be coming to an end and we can expect to see prices continue to fall.  That said we will need to keep a close eye on our long and short term weather forecasts and watch how Natural Gas reacts at key support levels to confirm this strong up trend is coming to an end. 

Levels:

Support:  3.860, 3.827, 3.776, 3.640, 3.600

Resistance: 3.963, 3.996, 4.016, 4.048, 4.184

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/25/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 93.79

Low: 92.52

Close:  93.67

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil catch a huge bid into the close Friday as the Brent/WTI spread narrowed to its tightest level since July 2012.   Crude prices also caught a slight bid in the overnight session making high prints at 94.25 off the news that Cyprus has reached a new deal.  We are looking at opening prints above 94.10 to be a bullish indication that could possibly push us back to the top of our range.  However moving forward this week we will need to continue to monitor the Cyprus situation and how it impacts the markets as well as any Geopolitical news out of the Middle East.

Levels:

Support:  93.94, 93.67, 93.33, 92.86, 92.52, 92.06

Resistance: 94.27, 94.60, 94.90, 95.87, 96.00, 96.50

  

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 4.006

Low: 3.913

Close:  3.924

Looking ahead to today: 

We saw April Natural Gas prices fail to hold above the 4.000 level on Friday once again and the May front month traded in a similar fashion as well also failing to hold above the 4.000 level.  That said, although we are still seeing colder than normal temperatures across most of the country, it appears that this strong uptrend may be coming to an end.  As the April contract expires tomorrow we will are keeping a close eye on the May options to see how traders are positioning themselves as well as watching key support levels for clues that this uptrend is really slowing down.  Our long and short term weather forecasts will also be a key factor this week as we should see some warming temperatures come in to play over the next few weeks that will quickly weaken Natural Gas demand.

Levels:

Support:  3.952, 3.913, 3.898, 3.859, 3.766

Resistance: 3.991, 4.006, 4.025, 4.045, 4.138

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/22/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 93.38

Low: 91.84

Close:  92.48

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude trade in a wide range again yesterday falling to an 8 day low below the 200 day moving average off weak economic data out of the EU and continued uncertainty in Cyprus.   We did bounce back and close the day out at 92.48 as we saw the dollar drop and the Equity Markets rebound.   Prices traded up briefly in the overnight session into the 93.00 handle, suggesting we could possibly make another run for the 93.50 resistance area.  A break of this level can quickly take us to the top of our range.  We have no major economic data scheduled for release today.  That said, will need how prices react at key levels and keep a close eye on any Geopolitical news out of the Middle East and the EU that could impact this market.

Levels:

Support:  92.65, 91.92, 91.84, 91.36, 91.11 90.04

Resistance: 93.02, 93.38, 94.08, 94.25, 95.00, 95.73

   

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 4.025

Low: 3.891

Close:  3.934

Looking ahead to today:

We saw Natural Gas prices close down on the session at 3.934 after yesterday’s Storage Report showed a less than expected draw in inventories -62BCF vs -70BCF.   Although we did trade up into the 4.000 handle making highs at 4.025,  we have an interesting scenario playing out as options activity remains bullish but we have seen many players taking short positions in the outrights for the past several days.  We are looking at the 3.900-3.860 as support for this current up trend to continue.   That said we will need to keep an eye on these levels and our long and short term weather forecasts as we should see some warming temperatures come in to play over the next few weeks that will quickly weaken Natural Gas demand.

Levels:

Support: 3.951, 3.934, 3.891, 3.877, 3.817   

Resistance: 3.978, 4.011, 4.025, 4.085, 4.170

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/21/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 93.60

Low: 92.47

Close:  93.52

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil products all surprisingly catch an offer off of yesterday’s DOE showed a -1.3M draw in inventories vs the 2.8M forecasted build.   Prices did recover late in the session closing at 93.52 off news that the Feds were going to continue with their easing monetary policies.   We are looking for an open above yesterday’s highs as possible bullish indication that could bring us to the top of our range.  However we will need to keep a close eye on today’s data numbers as well as any Geopolitical news out of the Middle East and the EU that could impact this market.

Levels:

Support:  92.79, 92.47, 92.07, 90.94

Resistance: 93.20, 93.60, 93.92, 94.33, 95.46

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.968

Low: 3.902

Close:  3.959

Looking ahead to today: 

We saw Natural Gas prices trade sideways early in the session before catching a slight bid and settling us out at 3.959.  Today all eyes will be on today’s 10:30 am storage report that is forecasting a bullish -70BCU draw in inventories.   As options remain bullish a draw in inventories can quickly push us up into the 4.000 range.   We have seen some short positioning come into play by dealers over the last few days suggesting that 4.000  levels will be the top of our range and we could possibly start to see some selling come into play.  That said we need to continue to see how prices will react at key levels

Levels:

Support: 3.975, 3.937, 3.897, 3.885, 3.846, 3.755      

Resistance: 3.988, 4.000, 4.010, 4.028, 4.119

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/20/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 94.27

Low: 92.43

Close:  92.50

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil prices trade in a wide 1.84 range before settling at 92.50 off of concerns that Cyprus may reject the latest bailout package, these fears also dragged down RBOB, HO and Brent throughout the trading session.  We did see the 92.00 support area hold in the overnight Globex session pushing us up to make overnight high prints at 93.40 suggesting we may see a retracement back to range highs.   However, we need to continue to keep a close eye on Cyprus news to see how the markets react to any new bailout proposals as their Parliament did defeat yesterday’s tax based bailout last night.  Additionally and perhaps more importantly, all eyes will be focused on today’s 10:30am DOE Inventory Report that is forecasting a 1.8M barrel build in inventories.   Last night’s API report showed a -413k draw in Crude, a +278k build in Gasoline and -1.3M draw in Distillates.  Using this report as a leading indicator into today’s DOE report, we could see a possible draw in inventories that may put upward pressure on Crude Oil Prices, whereas a build could continue to push prices lower. 

  

Levels:

Support:  93.17, 92.43, 92.00, 91.89, 91.06

Resistance: 93.98, 94.27, 94.47, 94.90. 95.28

  

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.961

Low: 3.877

Close:  3.883

Looking ahead to today:

We saw Natural Gas prices on the bid for most of yesterday’s pit session before closing just below high prints at 3.971.  Although we have seen a slight pullback in the overnight session, options continued to look bullish yesterday suggesting traders may still want to test the 4.000 level.  The latest weather reports also still appear to be supportive with colder than usual spring temperatures throughout most of the U.S.   That said, we will need to keep a close eye on how prices react at key levels as well as any new weather reports that may reverse or slow down this bullish up trend.   The key indicator for this market will be tomorrow’s 10:30am Storage Report,  if we do see another larger than expected draw we can easily see this market push into the 4.000 handle as options suggest. 

Levels:

Support: 3.903, 3.883, 3.869, 3.795, 3.726      

Resistance: 3.940, 3.961, 3.974, 4.000, 4.010

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

3/19/2013 Update:

Previous Crude Pit Session:

High: 94.30

Low: 92.14

Close:  94.09

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil prices trade in a wide 2.16 range before settling near high prints at 93.09 after recovering from 4 day lows at 92.14.  The early downward sentiment was mostly driven by strength in the Dollar of fears out of Cyprus.  Then we caught large bid off the Lows from Dealers and locals as news that Syria began bombing the Lebanese border and a sentiment among traders that the Cyprus issue may be overblown.   We are looking at an open above the 94.00 handle as a bullish sign that could push us up to the top of our 95.00 as options suggest.  We need to keep a close eye on Today's API report due out later as a build in inventories may bring us back to the lows of our range and a draw my continue to put pressure to the upside.  Additionally, we need to continue to monitor any Geopolitical news that can continue to impact this market.

For more information also check out our daily commentary video at:

http://www.crudesquawk.com/daily-commentary.html

Levels:

Support:  93.91, 93.54, 92.76, 92.14, 91.36

Resistance: 94.32, 94.66, 94.94, 95.50, 95.72

  

Previous Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.961

Low: 3.877

Close:  3.883

Looking ahead to today:

We saw Natural Gas prices catch a bid early in the session making new highs at 3.961 before selling off to our low prints at 3.877.  The overnight Globex session has continued to chop sideways.   We have seen some floor traders take on short positions at the 3.90-3.91 levels, possibly suggesting that this strong uptrend may be starting to stall.  That said, we will need to keep a close eye on how prices react at key levels this week as well as any weather reports that may reverse or slow down this bullish up trend.   Natty may continue to chop sideways until Thursdays Storage report gives us a better indication on current demand and storage levels.

For more information also check out our daily commentary video at:

http://www.crudesquawk.com/daily-commentary.html

Levels:

Support: 3.858, 3.846, 3.799, 3.692

Resistance: 3.906, 3.953, 3.961, 4.013